How does OPI determine Forecast End Date?

[qurm]

Hi,

How does OPI determine the Forecast End Date for a Process Instance? There are many places that durations can be configured in a Scenario (at the scenario level, at the phase, and at the milestone), and there are many options for each (fixed duration, dates, timestamps, by an attribute). A process instance can then be within or exceed any of these durations. As a result even a simple process can be difficult to predict for every instance.

I do have some specific examples with long-running processes and unpredictable end dates, but firstly I would like to understand from the OPI product team what is taken into consideration when forecasting?

"Predictive" analytics are very topical so this is a feature that my business users are interested in, but it needs to be predictable!!

I have looked through the Developer and User guides, but see no mention of this topic.

Thanks, Andy

[tkhiani · Accepted solution]

Hi Andrew,

Forecasted end date for an instance (order, claim…) is based on the % Completed.

We use a simple computation like 10% completed in 2 hours then 100% will be completed in 100 * 2 / 10 = 20 hours. Hence estimated end would be Start Date + 20 hours.

% Completed is a mathematical model which uses a target of the phases, no. of milestones in the phase, the status of the phase and number of milestones reached. This is a complex model but we do not use past data.

Hence more phases & number of milestones in a phase better is the forecast.

Regards,

Tarun

[qurm · Accepted solution]

Thanks, Tarun.

[DG]

I guess it just uses the black magic.