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How does OPI determine Forecast End Date?

Hi,

How does OPI determine the Forecast End Date for a Process Instance? There are many places that durations can be configured in a Scenario (at the scenario level, at the phase, and at the milestone), and there are many options for each (fixed duration, dates, timestamps, by an attribute). A process instance can then be within or exceed any of these durations. As a result even a simple process can be difficult to predict for every instance.

I do have some specific examples with long-running processes and unpredictable end dates, but firstly I would like to understand from the OPI product team what is taken into consideration when forecasting?

"Predictive" analytics are very topical so this is a feature that my business users are interested in, but it needs to be predictable!!

I have looked through the Developer and User guides, but see no mention of this topic.

Thanks, Andy
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2 Answers

  • Best Answer
    May 17, 2017 at 04:59 AM

    Hi Andrew,

    Forecasted end date for an instance (order, claim…) is based on the % Completed.

    We use a simple computation like 10% completed in 2 hours then 100% will be completed in 100 * 2 / 10 = 20 hours. Hence estimated end would be Start Date + 20 hours.

    % Completed is a mathematical model which uses a target of the phases, no. of milestones in the phase, the status of the phase and number of milestones reached. This is a complex model but we do not use past data.

    Hence more phases & number of milestones in a phase better is the forecast.

    Regards,

    Tarun

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  • Feb 27, 2017 at 02:03 PM

    I guess it just uses the black magic.

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