How to set Forecast Profile for strategy 40

[former_member276155]

Hi all

I'd like to know how to set the Forecast Profile with strategy "40 - Forecast with seasonal trend models", based on 3 years of history.

Any suggestions?

Thank you and Regards

Fabrizio

[rajkj · Accepted solution]

Hi Fabrizio,

You can use t.code /SAPAPO/MC96B to define a forecast profile. In the first tab (master profile), you can set the forecast and history horizons. In the second tab (univariate forecast profile), you can set the forecast strategy 40 along with other parameters to influence statistical forecast generation. Univariate profile name must be set in the master profile.

Thanks,

Rajesh

[former_member276155 · Accepted solution]

Thanks Rajesh

Actually I've already set forecast profile through /SAPAPO/MC96B, with horizons and parameters. The problem is that, when displaying forecast through /SAPAPO/SDP94 (Univariate Forecast), trend seems right, but with a two-month postponement.

Example:

Forecast Horizon: Periods = 18 (months), offset = +1

History Horizon: Periods = 36

Result: low and peak in history are on January and March, in corrected forecast are on March and May.

How could I correct that?

Thanks!

Fabrizio

[rajkj · Accepted solution]

Hi Fabrizio,

Probably, the offset +1 that you set in your forecast horizon might be responsible for inaccuracy. However, it is better to test the forecast error (for instance MAPE measure) with and without offset and validate the hypothesis.

Thanks,

Rajesh