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Former Member
Jan 23, 2012 at 02:30 PM

Moving average forecast does not work correctly

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Hello,

I have a forecast model with the strategy moving average 6 months. When I checked the forecast values in the planning book, I recognized that there is a mismatch with the calculation of the forecast:

There is a drift of 2 months when showing the values in the appendant buckets. The first bucket which is filled with forecast values (bucket: current month + 1) contains the moving average value from month - 8 until month - 2.

Example: forecast value for Feb 12 is calculated as follows:

(Nov 11 + Oct 11 + Sep 11 + Aug 11 + Jul 11 + Jun 11) / 6

It is the same procedure for all other following months.

The right calculation should be as follows:

(Jan 12 + Dez 11 + Nov 11 + Oct 11 + Sep 11 + Aug 11) / 6

I checked several settings in the activity and job creation and in the setting of the forecast profiles. I expected that an offset of 2 months is set, but there is nothing.

So, I do not know how to explain this system behaviour....

Hope anybody can help!

Thanks and kind regards

Heinz