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Issues with statistical modeling in calendar months vs 13 fiscal periods

In our demand planning, we plan at the fiscal period level (13 fiscal periods across a year - not matching with calendar months or year). We are having issues (strange results) trying to run the statistical modeling at the fiscal period level versus the calendar month level. Is there a way to run the stat modeling over fiscal periods rather than calendar months? Can we run stat modeling over a specific date range rathn than including the current month?

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  • Posted on Dec 14, 2011 at 08:20 AM

    Hi Stephen,

    We also use custom periods, and we don't face any issues. What issues are you facing? You need to maintain Fiscal year variant (year wise), and then maintain the custom period in the storage bucket profile. When you maintain the forecast profile, maintain your period and the fiscal year variant.

    If you have maintained the above settings and still see any specific issue, please tell me what seems strange to you.

    You could maintain an offset in the forecast profile of +1 period if you don't want to have the forecast for teh current period.

    Thanks -Pawan

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  • author's profile photo Former Member
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    Posted on Dec 15, 2011 at 02:34 PM

    If I enter in the u201CPeriods per Seasonu201D 13 I get very bad and unexpected results in the statistical forecast output. I can run the model below with the 12 periods per season in the fiscal period view of the planning book and there is no problem, but the math is treating the data as if there are 12 periods per season and not 13.

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    • Hi Stephen, I guess I can assume the following:

      1) In the master forecast profile, you have maintained the period indicator and the fiscal year variant

      2) You are choosing a forecast strategy in univariate profile (?) that makes use of seasonality, and you are trying to maintain the number of periods in a season as 13 (in our case, our periods are custom, but there are still 12 periods, so different from your case)

      3) Your history horizon in master forecast profile is more than the number of periods in the season i.e. history has more than 13 periods of data

      If above things are already done and you still face issue when you try to use 13 periods in a season, looks to me like a SAP bug, and it would be best to raise an OSS message to SAP.

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