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author's profile photo Former Member
Former Member

Forecast Errors

Hello Experts,

Currently we are working on SCM 5.0 V

We have one scenario for calculation forecast. We have 3 years sales History according to that we are calculating forecast for future 12 periods by using Seasonal Trend Model (41). We are getting forecast according to that.

My question is related to Forecast Error. After running forecast engine we are not finding any forecast error. I have selected outlier correction as Ex-post Forecast & all forecast error methods. But could not find any forecast error. But when we select Auto Model selection 2 or 1 or Constant model, then we can see the forecast error.

Why system does not shown any forecast error for Seasonal & Trend Model (41) ?

Can anyone help me for the same?

Thanks in Advance!!!!!!!!!

Regards

Sujay

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3 Answers

  • author's profile photo Former Member
    Former Member
    Posted on Dec 16, 2008 at 01:45 PM

    Hi Sujay,

    How are you runnignt he forecast? interactively or int he background? Check your univariate profile settings.

    Make sure that you

    1. selected the version data must be picked up from,

    2. number of periods

    3.Atleast one of he errors MAD, MSE, RMSE etc. under forecast errors must be selected.

    4.Do you have any diagnosis group that might be effecting this

    5. Did you assign forecast profile to the selection in SDP94 screen?

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  • author's profile photo Former Member
    Former Member
    Posted on Dec 16, 2008 at 01:48 PM

    hi sujay ,

    If you are not getting any errors for Seasonal Trend Model , that means your forecast strategy is suitable for your's scenario .

    Then you can select Constant model , you can get forecast errors, because of your scenario is suitable for seasonal trend model only.

    Constant model means your forecast values should be going constantly .

    In automatic model selection, if the system cannot detect any clear time series patterns in the historical data, it automatically selects the constant model.

    Bye ,

    Ramesh Babu Maddri

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  • author's profile photo Former Member
    Former Member
    Posted on Dec 19, 2008 at 10:11 AM

    Please check if your have selected a error type in yuor forecast profile.

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