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Sep 01, 2007 at 02:29 PM

Automodels in Forecasting APO DP


I had a few starter questions in APO DP implementation.

1. What is the best Forecast Strategy to start with for CVCs to be forecasted? - Automodel 1 or 2 or is there any other better approach?

2. How do we exactly use Automodel 1? Since it can potentially do testing for trend and seasonality, do we switch to Automodel 2 if we find both of them to test positive ? Can we perenially work on Automodel 1?

3. How do we automate the evolution of Forecasting models? Say the data pattern begins to show positive test for seasonality through automodel 1, how can strategy automatically switch to seasonality model?

4. If the trend and seasonality test negative, how can we automatically switch the model to a more appropriate one?

5. In automodel 2, we find sometimes alpha to be proposed as 0.5 (which is the edge of the range) and Beta & Gamma to be 0 although the range is 0.1 to 0.5. Does this mean that automodel 2 does not fit in? If yes, how can strategy switch to a better model?

Please share best practices on how we can automate Forecast model switching.