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Former Member

Forecast Models

Hi Guys

Can any bdy explain, how the Initialization values of Basic ,Trend,Seasonal ,Ex-post and MAD caluclates in the Seasonal the values are caluclated after initializing period(Basic ,Trend,Seasonal ,Ex-post and MAD )

Thanks in advance

Ravi Pradeep P

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2 Answers

  • Best Answer
    May 16, 2007 at 05:01 AM

    Hi Pradeep,

    Please look at the following presentations/docuements under BPX Community >> Supply Chain Management >> Demand Planning

    Forecasting Workshop

    Slies 16-18 explain how calculation for Trend model is done in Initialisation, Expost and Forecast Horizon. The computation logic just changes from model to model which are detailed in later slides.

    Data Analysis and Statistical Model Selection

    This document may not give you direct answers to your questions but worth going through.

    Hope these help.



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    • Hi Pradeep,

      I need to understand the values you have mentioned.

      Are you saying that your trend value is zero in the ex-post period. In that case why do you want to consider a Trend model.

      Also how can your MAD be zero. I am not sure if these are the typical values for a Trend Model.

      Of course if your MAD is zero (which I doubt) then the tolerance threshold value will be same as the ex-post forecast and outlier correction will not happen.

      Please check your formulae for trend.



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    Former Member
    Sep 24, 2007 at 02:16 PM

    Hi Guys,

    I have a problem, i'm using a trend model and my question is how SAP initialize the forecast with 12 Value.

    It's clear by previous document how it's work with 3 value:




    But my question is:

    How it work with 3, 4, 5....12 value?

    Thank you very much for your help!

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