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Forecast Models

Hi Guys

Can any bdy explain, how the Initialization values of Basic ,Trend,Seasonal ,Ex-post and MAD caluclates in the Seasonal model.how the values are caluclated after initializing period(Basic ,Trend,Seasonal ,Ex-post and MAD )

Thanks in advance

Ravi Pradeep P

rpr.pulusu@gmail.com

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2 Answers

  • Best Answer
    May 16, 2007 at 05:01 AM

    Hi Pradeep,

    Please look at the following presentations/docuements under BPX Community >> Supply Chain Management >> Demand Planning

    Forecasting Workshop

    https://www.sdn.sap.com/irj/servlet/prt/portal/prtroot/docs/library/uuid/7a4025f8-0a01-0010-0fb2-b7ab22597675

    Slies 16-18 explain how calculation for Trend model is done in Initialisation, Expost and Forecast Horizon. The computation logic just changes from model to model which are detailed in later slides.

    https://www.sdn.sap.com/irj/servlet/prt/portal/prtroot/docs/library/uuid/2bb941f8-0a01-0010-88a6-ee870ea61a13

    Data Analysis and Statistical Model Selection

    This document may not give you direct answers to your questions but worth going through.

    Hope these help.

    Thanks,

    Somnath

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    • Hi Pradeep,

      I need to understand the values you have mentioned.

      Are you saying that your trend value is zero in the ex-post period. In that case why do you want to consider a Trend model.

      Also how can your MAD be zero. I am not sure if these are the typical values for a Trend Model.

      Of course if your MAD is zero (which I doubt) then the tolerance threshold value will be same as the ex-post forecast and outlier correction will not happen.

      Please check your formulae for trend.

      Thanks,

      Somnath

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    Former Member
    Sep 24, 2007 at 02:16 PM

    Hi Guys,

    I have a problem, i'm using a trend model and my question is how SAP initialize the forecast with 12 Value.

    It's clear by previous document how it's work with 3 value:

    Hist3-Hist1

    -


    2

    But my question is:

    How it work with 3, 4, 5....12 value?

    Thank you very much for your help!

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